LNG Revenue Forecasting for the Ministry of Finance in Mozambique (2019-) Lead for Norad-funded support to Ministry of Economy and Finance (MEF) on LNG revenue forecasting under the Oil for Development Programme. Designed and supervised the development of an Excel-based economic model to forecast government revenues from the three proposed LNG projects. Providing capacity building to government officials on the LNG project, logic of the fiscal regime, revenue forecasting and sovereign wealth fund fiscal rule implementation.  

Revenue Analysis Modelling in Republic of Congo for EITI (2021-2022). Designed and delivered pioneering EITI-funded project designed to use Excel-based economic modelling to develop an integrated economic analysis based on published data to benchmark Congolese fiscal terms, explain historical government revenues, forecast potential government revenues, assess project capital and operating costs, and review price premiums/discounts for affiliated-party oil sales.  

Nigeria Fiscal Regime Analysis / Revenue Forecast (2018-2019). Prepared economic analysis on potential government revenues from controversial deepwater Block OPL245. Analysis compared the economic impact on the contractor, and the revenue implications for the government, of four different sets of fiscal terms. Report widely cited in the international media and entered as evidence in court cases in Nigeria, Italy, and the UK. Consultant to Nigerian Economic and Financial Crimes Commission.  

Netherlands Court of Audit Regional Project on Revenue Administration (2019-2020). Petroleum revenue expert for regional capacity building project providing training to Supreme Audit Institutions from Mozambique, Kenya, and Tanzania. Training topics included PSAs, monitoring contract compliance, fiscal regime analysis, economic modelling, cost control, and cost recovery audits. Material developed into a four-module online course for INTOSAI.  

 Uganda Petroleum Revenue Risk Capacity Building & Risk Register (2019). Prepared revenue risks assessment for the Petroleum Authority of Uganda. Quantified revenue risks based on an integrated (upstream, pipeline, refinery) Excel-based model. Collaborated with officials from PAU, Revenue Authority, Ministry of Finance, and Office of the Auditor General to develop a petroleum revenue risk register.  

 Kenya Turkana Cost Recovery Audits / Revenue Risk Analysis (2018-2019). Conducted cost recovery audits in Kenya, as part of a Joint Venture, for two onshore oil blocks (10BB and 13T) for $1.6 billion in exploration expenses. Responsible for analysis of production sharing contracts, including fiscal terms, cost recovery provisions, and audit and accounting procedures. Developed an upstream economic model to assess impact of cost recovery on future government profit oil.  

 Malawi Fiscal Regime Modelling – Contract Renegotiation (2016-2017). Provided technical assistance and capacity building for the Ministry of Finance in the renegotiation of production sharing agreements for Blocks 4 and 5. Developed an Excel-based economic model comparing different sets of fiscal terms applied to hypothetical oil fields used in analysis and training for officials (Finance, Revenue & Resource).  

Identifying and Countering Pathways to Government Revenue Loss